Firefox on Windows XP: End of the Line

With the release of Firefox 52 to all users worldwide, we now have the final Windows XP-supported Firefox release out the door.

This isn’t to say that support is done. As I’ve mentioned before, Windows XP users will be transitioned to the ESR update channel where they’ll continue to receive security updates for the next year or so.

And I don’t expect this to be the end of me having to blog about weird clients that are inexplicably on Windows XP.

However, this does take care of one of the longest-standing data questions I’ve looked at on this blog and in my career at Mozilla. So I feel that it’s worth taking a moment to mark the occasion.

Windows XP is dead. Long live Windows XP.

:chutten

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Data Science is Hard: Anomalies and What to Do About Them

:mconley‘s been looking at tab spinners to try and mitigate their impact on user experience. That’s when he noticed something weird that happened last October on Firefox Developer Edition:

spinnersubmissions_buildid

It’s a spike a full five orders of magnitude larger than submission volumes for a single build have ever been.

At first I thought it was users getting stuck on an old version. But then :frank noticed that the “by submission date” of that same graph didn’t tally with that hypothesis:

spinnersubmissions_subdate

Submissions from Aurora (what the Firefox Developer Edition branch is called internally) 51 tailed of when Aurora 52 was released in exactly the way we’ve come to expect. Aurora 52 had a jump mid-December when we switched to using “main” pings instead of “saved-session” pings to run our aggregates, but otherwise everything’s fine heading into the end of the year.

But then there’s Aurora 51 rising from the dead in late December. Some sort of weird re-adoption update problem? But where are all those users coming from? Or are they actually users? These graphs only plot ping volumes.

( Quick refresher: we get anonymous usage data from Firefox users via “pings”: packets of data that are sent at irregular intervals. A single user can send many pings per day, though more than 25 in a day is a pretty darn chatty. )

At this point I filed a bug. It appeared as though, somehow, we were getting new users running Aurora 51 build 20161014.

:mhowell popped the build onto a Windows machine and confirmed that it was updating fine for him. Anyone running that build ought not to be running it for long as they’d update within a couple of hours.

At this point we’d squeezed as much information as the aggregated data could give us, so I wandered off closer to the source to get deeper answers.

First I double-checked that what we were seeing in aggregate was what the data actually showed. Our main_summary dataset confirmed what we were seeing was not some weird artefact… but it also showed that there was no increase in client numbers:

aurora51-pingcountvsclientcount

A quick flip of the query and I learned that a single “client” was sending tens of thousands of pings each and every day from a long-dead non-release build of Firefox Developer Edition.

A “client” in this case is identified by “client_id”, a unique identifier that lives in a Firefox profile. Generally we take a single “client” to roughly equal a single “user”, but this isn’t always the case. Sometimes a single user may have multiple profiles (one at work, one at home, for instance). Sometimes multiple users may have the same profile (an enterprise may provision a specific Firefox profile to every terminal).

It seemed likely we were in the second case: one profile, many Firefox installs.

But could we be sure? What could we learn about the “client” sending us this unexpectedly-large amount of data?

So I took a look.

First, a sense of scaleoutput_11_0

This single client began sending a few pings around November 15, 2016. This makes sense, as Aurora 51 was still the latest version at that time. Things didn’t ramp up until December when we started seeing over ten thousand pings per day. After a lull during Christmas it settled into what appeared to be some light growth with a large peak on Feb 17 reaching one hundred thousand pings on just that day.

This is kinda weird. If we assume some rule-of-thumb of say, two pings per user per day, then we’re talking fifty thousand users running this ancient version of Aurora. What are they doing with it?

Well, we deliberately don’t record too much information about what our users do with their browsers. We don’t know what URLs are being visited, what credentials they’re using, or whether they prefer one hundred duck-sized horses or one horse-sized duck.

But we do know for how long the browser session lasted (from Firefox start to Firefox shutdown), so let’s take a look at that:output_23_0

Woah. Over half of the sessions reported by the pings were exactly 215 seconds long. Two minutes and 35 seconds.

It gets weirder. It turns out that these Aurora 51 builds are all running on the same Operating System (Windows XP, about which I’ve blogged before), all have the same addon installed (Random Agent Spoofer, though about 10% also have Alexa Traffic Rank), none have Aurora 51 set to be their default browser, none have application updates enabled, and they come from 418 different geographical locations according to the IP address of the submitters (top 10 locations include 5 in the US, 2 in France, 2 in Britain, and one in Germany).

This is where I would like to report the flash of insight that had me jumping out of the bath shouting Eureka.

But I don’t have one.

Everyone mentioned here and some others besides have thrown their heads at this mystery and can’t come up with anything suitably satisfying. Is it a Windows XP VM that is distributed to help developers test their websites? Is it an embedded browser in some popular piece of software with broad geographic appeal? Is someone just spoofing us by setting their client ids the same? If so, how did they spoof their session lengths?

To me the two-minute-and-thirty-five-second length of sessions just screams that this is some sort of automated process. I’m worried that Firefox might have been packaged into some sort of botnet-type-thingy that has gone out and infected thousands of hosts and is using our robust network stack to… to do what?

And then there’s the problem of what to do about it.

On one hand, this is data from Firefox. It arrived properly-formed, and no one’s trying to attack us with it, so we have no need to stop it entering our data pipeline for processing.

On the other hand, this data is making the Aurora tab spinner graph look wonky for :mconley, and might cause other mischief down the line.

It leads us to question whether we care about data that’s been sent to use by automated processes… and whether we could identify such data if we didn’t.

For now we’re going to block this particular client_id’s data from entering the aggregate dataset. The aggregate dataset is used by telemetry.mozilla.org to display interesting stuff about Firefox users. Human users. So we’re okay with blocking it.

But all Firefox users submit data that might be useful to us, so what we’re not going to do is block this problematic client’s data from entering the pipeline. We’ll continue to collect and collate it in the hopes that it can reveal to us some way to improve Firefox or data collection in the future.

And that’s sadly where we’re at with this: an unsolved mystery, some unanswered questions about the value of automated data, and an unsatisfied sense of curiosity.

:chutten

Firefox Windows XP Exit Plan

7drhiqr

Last I reported, the future of Firefox’s Windows XP support was uncertain, even given long-standing plans for its removal.

With the filing of bug 1305453 and the commensurate discussion on firefox-dev, things are now much more certain. Firefox will (pending approval) be ending support for Windows XP and Windows Vista in Firefox 53 (scheduled release date: April 18, 2017).

Well, thanks for tuning in. I guess I can wrap up these posts and…

Okay, yes, you’re right. It isn’t that simple.

First, the actual day that Windows XP and Windows Vista users will cease getting Firefox updates is actually much later than April of 2017. Instead, those users will continue to receive security updates until April of 2018 because the version of Firefox 52 they’ll be getting is an Extended Support Release.

What is Firefox Extended Support Release (ESR)? It’s a version of Firefox for enterprises and other risk-averse users that receives security (and only security) updates for one year after initial release. This allows these change-weary users to still chose Firefox without having to consider how to support a major version release every six-to-eight weeks.

Windows XP and Vista users will be shunted from the normal roughly-six-weeks-per-version “Release” channel to the “ESR” channel for 52. New installs on Windows XP and Vista at that time will also be for ESR 52. This should ensure that our decreasing Windows XP+Vista userbase will be supported until they’ve finished diminishing into…

…well, okay that’s not simple either. In absolute terms, our Windows XP userbase has actually increased over the past six months or so. Some if not all of this is the end of the well-documented slump we see in user population over the Northern-hemisphere Summer (we’re now coming back up to Fall-Winter-Spring numbers). It is also possible that we’ve seen some ex-Chrome users fleeing Google’s drop of support from earlier this year.

Deseasonalized numbers for just WinXP users are hard to come by, so this is fairly speculative. One thing that’s for certain is that the diminishing Windows XP userbase trend I had previously observed (and was counting on seeing continue) is no longer in evidence.

So what happens if we reach April of 2018 and we still have millions and millions of Windows XP users still relying on Firefox to provide them with a safe way to navigate the increasingly-hostile environment of the Web?

No idea. I guess this means I’ll be continuing to blog about WinXP for a couple years yet.

:chutten

Mailing-List Mush: End of Life for Firefox on OSX 10.6-8, ICU dropping Windows XP Support

Apparently I’m now Windows XP Firefox Blogging Guy. Ah well, everyone’s gotta have a hobby.

End of Life for Firefox on OSX 10.6-8

The Firefox Future Releases Blog announced the end of support for Mac OSX 10.6-10.8 for Firefox. This might be our first look at how Windows XP’s end of life might be handled. I like the use of language:

All three of these versions are no longer supported by Apple. Mozilla strongly encourages our users to upgrade to a version of OS X currently supported by Apple. Unsupported operating systems receive no security updates, have known exploits, and are dangerous for you to use.

You could apply that just as easily and even more acutely to Windows XP.

But, then, why isn’t Mozilla ending support for XP in a similar announcement? Essentially it is because Windows XP is still too popular amongst Firefox users. The Windows XP Firefox population still outnumbers the Mac OSX (all versions) and Linux populations combined.

My best guess is that we’ll be able to place the remaining Windows XP Firefox users on ESR 52 which should keep the last stragglers supported into 2018. That is, if the numbers don’t suddenly decrease enough that we’re able to drop support completely before then, shuffling the users onto ESR 45 instead.

What’s nice is the positive-sounding emails at the end of the thread announcing the gains in testing infrastructure and the near-term removal of code that supported now-unused build configurations. The cost of supporting these platforms is non-0, and gains can be realized immediately after dropping support.

ICU Planning to Drop Support for Windows XP

A key internationalization library in use by Firefox, ICU, is looking to drop Windows XP support in their next version. The long-form discussion is on dev-platform (you might want to skim the unfortunate acrimony over Firefox for Android (Fennec) present in that thread) but it boils down to: do we continue shipping old software to support Windows XP? For how long? Is this the straw that will finally break WinXP support’s back?

:milan made an excellent point on how the Windows XP support decision is likely to be made:

Dropping the XP support is *completely* not an engineering decision.  It isn’t even a community decision.  It is completely, 100% MoCo driven Firefox product management decision, as long as the numbers of users are where they are.

On the plus side, ICU seems to be amenable to keep Windows XP support for a little longer if we need it… but we really ought to have a firm end-of-life date for the platform if we’re to make that argument in a compelling fashion. At present we don’t have (or at least haven’t communicated) such a date. ICU may just march on without us if we don’t decide on one.

For now I will just keep an eye on the numbers. Expect a post when the Windows XP numbers finally dip below the Linux+OSX as that will be a huge psychological barrier broken.

But don’t expect that post for a few months, at least.

:chutten

 

 

Firefox’s Windows XP Users’ Upgrade Path

We’re still trying to figure out what to do with Firefox users on Windows XP.

One option I’ve heard is: Can we just send a Mozillian to each of these users’ houses with a fresh laptop and training in how to migrate apps and data?

( No, we can’t. For one, we can’t uniquely identify who and where these users are (this is by design). For two, even if we could, the Firefox Windows XP userbase is too geographically diverse (as I explained in earlier posts) for “meatspace” activities like these to be effective or efficient. For three, this could be kinda expensive… though, so is supporting extra Operating Systems in our products. )

We don’t have the advertising spend to reach all of these users in the real world, but we do have access to their computers in their houses… so maybe we can inform them that way?

Well, we know we can inform people through their browsers. We have plenty of data from our fundraising drives to that effect… but what do we say?

Can we tell them that their computer is unsafe? Would they believe us if we did?

Can we tell them that their Firefox will stop updating? Will they understand what we mean if we did?

Do these users have the basic level of technical literacy necessary to understand what we have to tell them? And if we somehow manage to get the message across about what is wrong and why,  what actions can we recommend they take to fix this?

This last part is the first thing I’m thinking about, as it’s the most engineer-like question: what is the optimal upgrade strategy for these users? Much more concrete to me than trying to figure out wording, appearance, and legality across dozens of languages and cultures.

Well, we could instruct them to upgrade to Linux. Except that it wouldn’t be an upgrade, it’d be a clean wipe and reinstall from scratch: all the applications would be gone and all of their settings would reset to default. All the data on their machines would be gone unless they could save it somewhere else, and if you imagine a user who is running Windows XP, you can easily imagine that they might not have access to a “somewhere else”. Also, given the average level of technical expertise, I don’t think we can make a Linux migration simple enough for most of these users to understand. These users have already bought into Windows, so switching them away is adding complexity no matter how simplistic we could make it for these users once the switch was over.

We could instruct them to upgrade to Windows 7. There is a clear upgrade path from XP to 7 and the system requirements of the two OSes are actually very similar. (Which is, in a sincere hat-tip to Microsoft, an amazing feat of engineering and commitment to users with lower-powered computers) Once there, if the user is eligible for the Windows 10 upgrade, they can take that upgrade if they desire (the system requirements for Windows 10 are only _slightly_ higher than Windows 7 (10 needs some CPU extensions that 7 doesn’t), which is another amazing feat). And from there, the users are in Microsoft’s upgrade path, and out of the clutches of the easiest of exploits, forever. There are a lot of benefits to using Windows 7 as an upgrade path.

There are a few problems with this:

  1. Finding copies of Windows 7: Microsoft stopped selling copies of Windows 7 years ago, and these days the most reliable way to find a copy is to buy a computer with it already installed. Mozilla likely isn’t above buying computers for everyone who wants them (if it has or can find the money to do so), but software is much easier to deliver than hardware, and is something we already know how to do.
  2. Paying for copies of Windows 7: Are we really going to encourage our users to spend money they may not have on upgrading a machine that still mostly-works? Or is Mozilla going to spend hard-earned dollarbucks purchasing licenses of out-of-date software for everyone who didn’t or couldn’t upgrade?
  3. Windows 7 has passed its mainstream support lifetime (extended support’s still good until 2020). Aren’t we just replacing one problem with another?
  4. Windows 7 System Requirements: Windows XP only needed a 233MHz processor, 64MB of RAM, and 1.5GB of HDD. Windows 7 needs 1GHz, 1GB, and 16GB.

All of these points are problematic, but that last point is at least one I can get some hard numbers for.

We don’t bother asking users how big their disk drives are, so I can’t detect how many users are cannot meet Windows 7’s HDD requirements. However, we do measure users’ CPU speeds and RAM sizes (as these are important for sectioning performance-related metrics. If we want to see if a particular perf improvement is even better on lower-spec hardware, we need to be able to divvy users up by their computers’ specifications).

So, at first this seems like a breeze: the question is simply stated and is about two variables that we measure. “How many Windows XP Firefox users are Stuck because they have CPUs slower than 1GHZ or RAM smaller than 1GB?”

But if you thought that for more than a moment, you should probably go back and read my posts about how Data Science is hard. It turns out that getting the CPU speed on Windows involves asking the registry for data, which can fail. So we have a certain amount of uncertainty.

windowsXPStuck

So, after crunching the data and making some simplifying assumptions (like how I don’t expect the amount of RAM or the speed of a user’s CPU to ever decrease over time) we have the following:

Between 40% and 53% of Firefox users running Windows XP are Stuck (which is to say, they can’t be upgraded past Windows XP because they fail at least one of the requirements).

That’s some millions of users who are Stuck no matter what we do about education, advocacy, and software.

Maybe we should revisit the “Mozillians with free laptops” idea, after all?

:chutten

 

Firefox User Engagement

I now know, which is to say that I can state with some degree of certainty, that Windows XP Firefox users are only a little less engaged with their Firefox installations as the Firefox user base as a whole.

To get here I needed to sanitize dates with more than four digits in their years (paging the Long Now Foundation: someone’s reporting Telemetry from the year 29634), with timezones not of this Earth (Wikipedia seems to think UTC+14:00 is the highest time zone, but I have seen data from +14:30), and with clones reporting the same session over and over again from different locations (this one might be because a user’s client_id is stored in their profile. If that profile is reused, then we will get data reported from all the locations that use that profile).

I also needed a rigorous definition of what it means for a user population to be “engaged”.

We chose to define an Engagement Ratio for a given day which is basically the number of people who ran Firefox that day divided by the number of people who ran Firefox the previous month. In other words: what proportion of users who could possibly be active actually were active on that day?

Of course, if you read my previous post, you know that the day of the week you choose is going to change your result dramatically. So instead of counting each user who used Firefox that exact day, we average it out over the previous week: if a user was active each day, they’re a full Daily Active User (DAU). If they’re active only one day, they’re 1/7 of a Daily Active User.

To see this in action, I chose to measure Engagement on March the 10th of this year, which was a Thursday. The number of users who reported data to the 1% Longitudinal Dataset who were active that day was 1,119,335. If we use instead the average of daily active users for the week ending on March the 10, we get 1,051,011.86 which is lower by over 6%. This is consistent with data we’ve collected in other studies that showed only 20% of Firefox users use it 7 days a week. Another 25% use it only on weekdays. So it makes sense that a weekday’s DAU count would be higher than a weekend day’s.

If you’ve ever complained about having to remember how many days there are in a month, you know that the choice of “month” is going to change things as well. So in this case, we just chose 28 days: four weeks. That there is no month that is always 28 days long (lookin’ at you, Leap Years) is irrelevant because we’re selecting values to make things easier for ourselves. So if a user was active on any of the previous 28 days, they are a Monthly Active User (MAU).

So you count your DAU and you divide it by your MAU count and you get your Engagement Ratio (ER) whose units are… unitless. Divide users by users and you get… something that’s almost a percent, in that it’s a value from 0 to 1 that represents a proportion of  a population.

This number we can track over time. We expect it to trend downwards when we ship something that negatively impacts users. We expect it to trend upwards when we ship something that users like.

So long as we can get this data quickly enough and reliably enough, we can start determining from the numbers (the silent majority), not noisy users (the vocal minority), what issues actually matter to the user base at large.

:chutten