The End of Firefox Windows XP Support

Firefox 62 has been released. Go give it a try!

At the same time, on the Extended Support Release channel, we released Firefox ESR 60.2 and stopped supporting Firefox ESR 52: the final version of Firefox with Windows XP support.

Now, we don’t publish all-channel user proportions grouped by operating system, but as part of the Firefox Public Data Report we do have data from the release channel back before we switched our XP users to the ESR channel. At the end of February 2016, XP users made up 12% of release Firefox. By the end of February 2017, XP users made up 8% of release Firefox.

If this trend continued without much change after we switched XP users to ESR, XP Firefox users would presently amount to about 2% of release users.

That’s millions of users we kept safe on the Internet despite running a nearly-17-year-old operating system whose last patch was over 4 years ago. That’s a year and a half of extra support for users who probably don’t feel they have much ability to protect themselves online.

It required effort, and it required devoting resources to supporting XP well after Microsoft stopped doing so. It meant we couldn’t do other things, since we were busy with XP.

I think we did a good thing for these users. I think we did the right thing for these users. And now we’re wishing these users the very best of luck.

…and that they please oh please upgrade so we can go on protecting them into the future.

:chutten

 

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Data Science is Hard: Counting Users

Screenshot_2018-08-29 User Activity Firefox Public Data Report

Counting is harder than you think. No, really!

Intuitively, as you look around you, you think this can’t be true. If you see a parking lot you can count the cars, right?

But do cars that have left the parking lot count? What about cars driving through it without stopping? What about cars driving through looking for a space? (And can you tell the difference between those two kinds from a distance?)

These cars all count if you’re interested in usage. It’s all well and good to know the number of cars using your parking lot right now… but is it lower on weekends? Holidays? Are you measuring on a rainy day when fewer people take bicycles, or in the Summer when more people are on vacation? Do you need better signs or more amenities to get more drivers to stop? Are you going to have expand capacity this year, or next?

Yesterday we released the Firefox Public Data Report. Go take a look! It is the culmination of months of work of many mozillians (not me, I only contributed some early bug reports). In it you can find out how many users Firefox has, the most popular addons, and how quickly Firefox users update to the latest version. And you can choose whether to look at how these plots look for the worldwide user base or for one of the top ten (by number of Firefox users) countries individually.

It’s really cool.

The first two plots are a little strange, though. They count the number of Firefox users over time… and they don’t agree. They don’t even come close!

For the week including August 17, 2018 the Yearly Active User (YAU) count is 861884770 (or about 862M)… but the Monthly Active User (MAU) count is 256092920 (or about 256M)!

That’s over 600M difference! Which one is right?

Well, they both are.

Returning to our parking lot analogy, MAU is about counting how many cars use the parking lot over a 28-day period. So, starting Feb 1, count cars. If someone you saw earlier returns the next day or after a week, don’t count them again: we only want unique cars. Then, at the end of the 28-day period, that was the MAU for Feb 28. The MAU for Mar 1 (on non-leap-years) is the same thing, but you start counting on Feb 2.

Similarly for YAU, but you count over the past 365 days.

It stands to reason that you’ll see more unique cars over the year than you will over the month: you’ll see visitors, tourists, people using the lot just once, and people who have changed jobs and haven’t been back in four months.

So how many of these 600M who are in the YAU but not in the MAU are gone forever? How many are coming back? We don’t know.

Well, we don’t know _precisely_.

We’ve been at the browser game for long enough to see patterns in the data. We’re in the Summer slump for MAU numbers, and we have a model for how much higher the numbers are likely to be come October. We have surveyed people of varied backgrounds and have some ideas of why people change browsers to or away from Firefox.

We have the no-longer users, the lapsed users, the lost-and-regained users, the tried-us-once users, the non-human users, … we have categories and rough proportions on what we think we know about our population, and how that influences how we can better make the internet better for them.

Ultimately, to me, it doesn’t matter too much. I work on Firefox, a product that hundreds of millions of people use. How many hundreds of millions doesn’t matter: we’re above the threshold that makes me feel like I’m making the world better.

(( Well… I say that, but it is actually my job to understand the mechanisms behind these  numbers and why they can’t be exact, so I do have a bit of a vested interest. And there are a myriad of technological and behavioural considerations to account for in code and in documentation and in analysis which makes it an interesting job. But, you know. Hundreds of millions is precise enough for my job satisfaction index. ))

But once again we reach the inescapable return to the central thesis. Counting is harder than you think: one of the leading candidates for the Data Team’s motto. (Others include “Well, it depends.” and “¯\_(ツ)_/¯”). And now we’re counting in the open, so you get to experience its difficulty firsthand. Go have another look.

:chutten

 

Faster Event Telemetry with “event” Pings

Screenshot_2018-07-04 New Query(1).pngEvent Telemetry is the means by which we can send ordered interaction data from Firefox users back to Mozilla where we can use it to make product decisions.

For example, we know from a histogram that the most popular way of opening the Developer Tools in Firefox Beta 62 is by the shortcut key (Ctrl+Shift+I). And it’s nice to see that the number of times the Javascript Debugger was opened was roughly 1/10th of the number of times the shortcut key was used.

…but are these connected? If so, how?

And the Javascript Profiler is opened only half as often as the Debugger. Why? Isn’t it easy to find that panel from the Debugger? Are users going there directly from the DOM view or is it easier to find from the Debugger?

To determine what parts of Firefox our users are having trouble finding or using, we often need to know the order things happen. That’s where Event Telemetry comes into play: we timestamp things that happen all over the browser so we can see what happens and in what order (and a little bit of how long it took to happen).

Event Telemetry isn’t new: it’s been around for about 2 years now. And for those two years it has been piggy-backing on the workhorse of the Firefox Telemetry system: the “main” ping.

The “main” ping carries a lot of information and is usually sent once per time you close your Firefox (or once per day, whichever is shorter). As such, Event Telemetry was constrained in how it was able to report this ordered data. It takes two whole days to get 95% of it (because that’s how long it takes us to get “main” pings), and it isn’t allowed to send more than one thousand events per process (lest it balloon the size of the “main” ping, causing problems).

This makes the data slow, and possibly incomplete.

With the landing of bug 1460595 in Firefox Nightly 63 last week, Event Telemetry now has its own ping: the “event” ping.

The “event” ping maintains the same 1000-events-per-process-per-ping limit as the “main” ping, but can send pings as frequently as one ping every ten minutes. Typically, though, it waits the full hour before sending as there isn’t any rush. A maximum delay of an hour still makes for low-latency data, and a minimum delay of ten minutes is unlikely to be overrun by event recordings which means we should get all of the events.

This means it takes less time to receive data that is more likely to be complete. This in turn means we can use less of it to get our answers. And it means more efficiency in our decision-making process, which is important when you’re competing against giants.

If you use Event Telemetry to answer your questions with data, now you can look forward to being able to do so faster and with less worry about losing data along the way.

And if you don’t use Event Telemetry to answer your questions, maybe now would be a good time to start.

The “event” ping landed in Firefox Nightly 63 (build id 20180627100027) and I hope to have it uplifted to Firefox Beta 62 in the coming days.

Thanks to :sunahsuh for her excellent work reviewing the proposal and in getting the data into the derived datasets so they can be easily queried, and further thanks to the Data Team for their support.

:chutten

Mozilla All-Hands Tips

25486648678_90fa78a27e_k
All Hands Austin, December 2017, Mitchell Baker presenting. (Photo used under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Twice a year, Mozilla gathers employees, volunteers, and assorted hangers-on in a single place to have a week of planning, working, and socializing. Being as distributed an organization as we are, it’s a bit rare to get enough of us in a single place to generate the kind of cross-talk and beneficial synergistic happenstances that help us work smarter and move in more-or-less the same direction. These are our All Hands events.

They’re a Pretty Big Deal(tm).

So here you are, individual contributor or manager, staff or volunteer, veteran or first-timer. With all these Big Plans, what are we littler folk to do to not become overwhelmed?

I have some tips.

Before You Go

Set up a mail folder/label for relevant email: You’ll be getting some email with details about where you should be, what you should be doing, and when. Organizing these into one place is helpful for reference, so come up with a label (maybe “201807-sanfran” or “mozsf2” or “fogzilla” or something) and organize those emails as they come in.

Act on those emails immediately: If they contain instructions or an announcement that bookings or registration is now open… then do that thing right then. Do not file the email and forget. Do the thing while you are looking at that email. Only then should you file that email and get back to where you were in your brain. If you absolutely can’t just then (have to synchronize with family or what-have-you), put a calendar reminder in that repeats every weekday until you handle it.

Do not upgrade Nightly: You’re running Nightly, right? You’ll be travelling through a land of uncertain connectivity, and the last thing you want is to use it downloading a multi-MB Nightly update that might have accidentally disabled Captive Portal Detection. If it works, keep your Nightly build until you’re certain you have the bandwidth to download a new one. All else fails, keep it until you get back.

Make sure your laptop is in shape: My laptop is often neglected in favour of its Desktop comrade: updates may be pending, credentials may have expired, the source code checkouts might be weeks old, and there may have even been a new version of Mozilla Build released since the last time I tried to compile Firefox. With luck, while at an All Hands you won’t have to compile Gecko on a laptop in your hotel… but we make our own luck, we who are prepared. Prepare your laptop.

Prepare your family: If you don’t live alone, you’ll have non-mozilla prepwork to do. Spouse and kids or roomates and pets, there are lifeforms who normally expect to see you that won’t. Clear the family schedule for the week you’re gone, and do as much preparation ahead of time as you can. Laundry, meal planning, groceries, sitters, dog walkers, even lawn services are things you can arrange to lighten the load that your absence will place on those around you. Even if you’re bringing them with you.

While You’re There

Do not fear missing out: You will not be able to attend both Boardgame Night and your team dinner. There will be karaoke parties you won’t get to, or be invited to. This is fine. This is expected. This is unavoidable when you have so many people disorganizing so many things simultaneously. So don’t fret about it. Prioritize.

Say no: Speaking of prioritizing: prioritize for yourself. You may very well be operating as a Level 100 You for hours at a time. So many people to talk to, so many talks and social events to organize, deliver, and attend… No. You don’t have to stay the entire length of the party. You don’t even have to go. If you feel yourself fading, get out while you have the strength. Regroup. Find a quiet corner or go to sleep early… At my first All Hands, I napped on both Wednesday and Thursday. And I wasn’t even in a different timezone. It really helped.

Wash your hands: Lots. Before meals. After meals. You’ll be talking, working, eating, and otherwise hanging out with a thousand of your closest coworkers. It’s probably your best bet for not catching mozflu, and it’s definitely your best bet to not transmit it.

After You’re Back

Consider taking a day: Generally speaking you’ll be flying back on Saturday and returning to work on Monday. Depending on distance to travel, available flight times, and cancellations, this may result in only a few hours between stumbling through your door and stumbling back to work. Consider booking that Monday off (or, honestly, if your trip back was heinous, don’t even book it off. Just take it. Get some sleep. Work can wait until Tuesday.)

Check in: If you live with family, you haven’t seen them for a week. Even if you brought them with you, you’ve been in meetings and talks and stuff most hours. Check in with them. Get up to speed on what’s been happening in their lives while you’ve been away.

Get excited for the next one: Even immediately back from an All Hands, it’s still only six months to the next one. Take stock of what you liked and what you didn’t like about this one. Rest up, and try not to get impatient :)

:chutten

(( Great minds think alike, because Seburo recently wrote a Wiki article covering even more excellent tips for All Hands events. Check that out, too! ))

Annoying Graphs: Did the Facebook Container Add-on Result in More New Firefox Profiles?

Yesterday, Mozilla was in the news again for releasing a Firefox add-on called Facebook Container. The work of (amongst others) :groovecoder, :pdol, :pdehaan, :rfeeley, :tanvi, and :jkt, Facebook Container puts Facebook in a little box and doesn’t let it see what else you do on the web.

You can try it out right now if you’d like. It’s really just as simple as going to the Facebook Container page on addons.mozilla.org and clicking on the “+ Add to Firefox” button. From then on Facebook will only be able to track you with their cookies while you are actually visiting Facebook.

It’s easy-to-use, open source, and incredibly timely. So it quickly hit the usual nerdy corners of the web… but then it spread. Even Forbes picked it up. We started seeing incredible numbers of hits on the blogpost (I don’t have plots for that, sorry).

With all this positive press did we see any additional new Firefox users because of it?

Normally this is where I trot out the usual gimmick “Well, it depends on how you word the question.” “Additional” compared to what, exactly? Compared to the day before? The same day a week ago? A month ago?

In this case it really doesn’t depend. I can’t tell, no matter how I word the question. And this annoys me.

I mean, look at these graphs:

Here’s one showing the new-profile pings we receive each minute of some interesting days:c52dd445-e624-47aa-a44d-d5e758b56b04

Summer Time lining up with Daylight Saving Time means that different parts of the world were installing Firefox at different times of the day. The shapes of the curves don’t line up, making it impossible to compare between days.

So here’s one showing the number of new-profile pings we received each day this month:ebce02bb-1c78-4c52-9878-9a9e8d78e459

Yesterday’s numbers are low comparing to other Tuesdays these past four weeks, but look at how low Monday’s numbers are! Clearly this is some weird kinda week, making it impossible to compare between weeks.

So here’s one showing approximate Firefox client counts of last April:1d44c744-0267-4216-9371-5bf042ba47e7

This highlights a seasonal depression starting the week of April 10 similar to the one shown in the previous plot. This is expected since we’re in the weeks surrounding Easter… but why did I look at last April instead of last March? Easter changes its position relative to the civil calendar, making it impossible to compare between years.

So, did we see any additional new Firefox users thanks to all of the hard work put into Facebook Container?

¯\_(-.-)_/¯

:chutten

TIL: Feature Detection in Windows using GetProcAddress

In JavaScript, if you want to use a function that was introduced only in certain versions of browsers, you use Feature Detection. For example, you can ask “Hey, browser, do you have a function called `includes` on Array?” If the browser has it, you use it; and if it doesn’t, you either get along without it or load your own implementation.

It turns out that this same concept can be (and, in Firefox, is) done with Windows APIs.

Firefox for Windows is built against the Windows 10 SDK. This means the compiler knows the API calls and type definitions for all sorts of wondrous modern features like toast notifications and enumerating graphics adapters in a specific order.

However, as of writing, Firefox for Windows supports Windows 7 and up. What would happen if Firefox tried to use those fancy new Windows 10 features when running on Windows 7?

Well, at compile time (when Mozilla builds Firefox), it knows everything it needs to about the sizes and names of things used in the new features thanks to the SDK. At runtime (when a user runs Firefox), it needs to ask Windows at what address exactly all of those fancy new features live so that it can use them.

If Firefox can’t find a feature it expects to be there, it won’t start. We want Firefox to start, though, and we want to use the new features when available. So how do we both use the new feature (if it’s there) and not (if it’s not)?

Windows provides an API called GetProcAddress that allows the running program to perform some Feature Detection. It is asking Windows “Hey, so I’m looking for the address of this fancy new feature named FancyNewAPI. Do you know where that is?”. Windows will either reply “No, sorry” at which point you work around it, or “Yes, it’s over at address X” at which point to convert address X into a function pointer that takes the same number and types of arguments that the documentation said it takes and then instruct your program to jump into it and start executing.

We use this in Firefox to detect gamepad input modules, cancelable synchronous IO, display density measurements, and a whole bunch of graphics and media acceleration stuff.

And today (well, yesterday at this point) I learned about it. And now so have you.

:chutten

–edited to remove incorrect note that GetProcAddress started in WinXP– :aklotz noted that GetProcAddress has been around since ancient times, MSDN just periodically updates its “Minimum Supported Release” fields to drop older versions.

Firefox Telemetry Use Counters: Over-estimating usage, now fixed

Firefox Telemetry records the usage of certain web features via a mechanism called Use Counters. Essentially, for every document that Firefox loads, we record a “false” if the document didn’t use a counted feature, and a “true” if the document did use that counted feature.

(( We technically count it when the documents are destroyed, not loaded, since a document could use a feature at any time during its lifetime. We also count top-level documents (pages) separately from the count of all documents (including iframes), so we can see if it is the pages that users load that are using a feature or if it’s the subdocuments that the page author loads on the user’s behalf that are contributing the counts. ))

To save space, we decided to count the number of documents once, and the number of “true” values in each use counter. This saved users from having to tell us they didn’t use any of Feature 1, Feature 2, Feature 5, Feature 7, … the “no-use” use counters. They could just tell us which features they did see used, and we could work out the rest.

Only, we got it wrong.

The server-side adjustment of the counts took every use counter we were told about, and filled in the “false” values. A simple fix.

But it didn’t add in the “no-use” use counters. Users who didn’t see a feature used at all weren’t having their “false” values counted.

This led us to under-count the number of “false” values (since we only counted “falses” from users who had at least one “true”), which led us to overestimate the usage of features.

Of all the errors to have, this one was probably the more benign. In failing in the “overestimate” direction we didn’t incorrectly remove features that were being used more than measured… but we may have kept some features that we could have removed, costing mozilla time and energy for their maintenance.

Once we detected the fault, we started addressing it. First, we started educating people whenever the topic came up in email and bugzilla. Second, :gfritzsche added a fancy Use Counter Dashboard that did a client-side adjustment using the correct “true” and “false” values for a given population.

Third, and finally, we fixed the server-side aggregator service to serve the correct values for all data, current and historical.

And that brings us to today: Use Counters are fixed! Please use them, they’re kind of cool.

:chutten

bfcbd97c-80cf-483b-8707-def6057474e6
Before
beb4afee-f937-4729-b210-f4e212da7504
After (4B more samples)